9 Comments

A noob question david, does a sell recomendation on this composite mean that we are expecting GBP to outperform these other pairs?

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Hi Arun, a sell in the context of this GBP composite means that the GBP is expected to weaken against the other currencies. Within each pair there will be variability (amplitude modulation) as you can see above with the composite and pairs in lighter grey. Does that make sense?

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Also one more thing, when I was replicating this composite in trading view, I could match the chart you have here by inverting the chart of [USD/GBP+EUR/GBP+AUD/GBP+CAD/GBP+JPY/GBP]

and not by [GBP/USD+GBP/EUR+GBP/AUD+GBP/CAD+GBP/JPY] is there a specific reason for that? or just a personal preference of denominator of these ratios to stay the same and invert the net result? perhaps cycles are more clear this way?

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Yes it does. I had my chart inverted lol

So whenever you refer to a currency composite like GBP here, it means that GBP is the numerator in the ratio yes? ie GBP/USD(part of the composite) cycle to move down

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Also bear in mind the prices are interpolated a little at any missing days (Sundays mostly) to make the time series to correct calendar days and calibrated for further analysis. Aside from that means are removed from all before feeding the time domain average into the TFA for inspection.

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so this data takes into account the weekends?

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Yes, data that is missing is interpolated.

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got it. Thanks david

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Yes, I have adjusted the title of the post to make it more obvious GBP vs ... in this case the composite consists of currencies where GBP is the numerator.

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