Gold - 19th November 2024 | @ 16.1 Months
'B' class signal detected in Gold (XAU/USD). Running at an average wavelength of 16.1 months over 9 iterations since March 2013. Currently peaked and moving down.
ΣL Cycle Summary
Such was the meteoric rise from the last low of this component (at the start of this year) that we have held off speculating on a peak until now. This cycle, running around 450-500 days average wavelength over the sample, really emerged as a dominant factor around 2013-2014. Price has been drawn into it’s influence over the subsequent years to the current point where we now observe a likely peak in the phase. Prior to that there were two competing components flanking this signal (around 400 and 600 days average wavelength), making the phase uncertain (see chart below).
Amplitude has increased slowly since 2016 and the last iteration looks to be the most powerful so far. Bulls will hope that this power is not maintained to the downside over coming months (meaning a full retrace to the last trough) and larger components (with more power) are still pushing up. This additional bullish power would then support a higher low, due mid 2025 according to the signal detail below. A similar scenario was seen from August 2011 to May 2012 with a consolation move, although that in itself preceded a larger move down.
If you have an interest in Gold this is definitely a cycle to be aware of going into 2025.