ΣL Gold Composite - 22nd December 2023 | @ 56 Days | - 0.66%
Last trade: - 0.66% | 'A' class signal detected in Sigma-L Gold composite (XAU vs USD/EUR/CAD/GBP/CHF/AUD/NZD/SGD/JPY). Avg. wavelength of 56 days - 16 iterations since Aug 2021. Currently peaking
ΣL Cycle Summary
We bring this Gold composite report to subscribers slightly earlier than scheduled due to it falling on Christmas Day (Monday) this time. The component around 55 days is a little modulated from the last trough but given the superb stationarity over the 16 iterations in the sample (and beyond!) we should pay close attention. The next peak is due over the next week or so and is assigned an ‘early sell’ below given the timing of this report and the current wavelength. Across major currency pairs the last iteration of the up leg from late November was largely neutral to bearish with the USD outperforming and the JPY ‘bringing up the rear’. The low in late October was likely of larger magnitude, so it will be interesting to see the depth of the move from the forthcoming down leg of this shorter wavelength component.
Trade Update
See also: Live ΣL Portfolio & History
Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous post for this instrument, linked below.
Type: Buy- ΣL Gold Composite 30th November 2023
Entry: 30th November 2023
Exit: 22nd December 2023
For a composite analysis, each constituent’s respective gain over the period is displayed, in descending order. The average of the constituent gain is also shown.
Constituent Gain:
XAUUSD (1.18%)
XAUGBP (0.34%)
XAUSGD (0.18%)
XAUEUR (0.07%)
XAUCAD (-1.00%)
XAUCHF (-1.10%)
XAUNZD (-1.14%)
XAUAUD (-1.71%)
XAUJPY (-2.78%)
Composite Average Gain:
- 0.66%
Current Signal Status
Defining characteristics of the component detected over the sample period.
Detected Signal Class: A - learn more
Average Wavelength: 55.74 Days
Completed Iterations: 16
Time Frequency Analysis
Time frequency charts (learn more) below will typically show the cycle of interest against price, the bandpass output alone and the bandwidth of the component in the time frequency heatmap, framed in white. If a second chart is displayed it will usually show high-passed price with the extracted signal overlaid for visual clarity.
Current Signal Detail & Targets
Here we give more detail on the signal relative to speculative price, given the detected attributes of the component. In most cases the time target to hold a trade for is more important, given we focus on cycles in financial markets. Forthcoming trough and peak ranges are based upon the frequency modulation in the sample (learn more).
Phase: Peaking
FM: +- 2 Days
AM: N/A (Composite)
Next Trough Range: 22nd January - 26th January, 2024
Next Peak Range: 19th February - 23rd February, 2024
Sigma-L Recommendation: Early Sell
Time Target: ~ 24th January, 2024
Current Signal Phase
This is ‘how far along’ the cycle is in it’s period at now time and is related to the predicted price action direction.
Current Signal Frequency Modulation (FM)
This is how much, on average, the signal detected varies in frequency (or wavelength) over the whole sample. A lower variance is better and implies better profitability for the component. Frequency usually modulates relatively slowly and over several iterations.
Current Signal Amplitude Modulation (AM)
This is how much the component gains or loses power (price influence) across the sample, on average. Amplitude modulation can happen quite quickly and certainly is more evident than frequency modulation in financial markets. The more stable the modulation the better.