S&P 500 - 4th September 2024 | @ 3.5 Years
'A' class signal detected in the S&P 500. Running at an average wavelength of 1275 days (~ 3.5 years) over 9 iterations since August 1994. Currently peaking
ΣL Cycle Summary
This superbly stable, long term cycle in the S&P 500 (and in others, Russell 2000 and DJIA, shown below) is testament to the non random nature of financial markets to some degree. We are excited to finally report on it as the peak approaches, although this report is somewhat early for the peak, subscribers should take note. It is quite incredible to see such a long term signal stand out in the bandwidth from around 2000 - 200 days wavelength and retain such clarity with relatively low frequency modulation (it’s duration varies very little over time). This is our archetypal ‘A’ category signal, with clear spectral spacing from surrounding frequencies. The implication being that there is no power (to drive price action) comparable to it in any significant statistical sense, anywhere near it.
As far as Hurst Cycles nomenclature is concerned, the common assumption is that there is a long term periodic component running at around 54 months, at least according to the nominal model. It was the discovery of the below wave several years ago, whilst applying an early version of our wavelet convolution, that prompted us to abandon that model in favour of a more evidenced and data driven approach, making conclusions from what we see. The stationarity of the wave, at around 1275 days from this particular sample, or ~ 41 months, is the only periodic feature of note over the last 30 years in this bandwidth range.
Readers should note that this periodic component is present in almost all global stock markets to a greater or lesser degree. US examples shown below.