S&P 500 (SPY) - 14th November 2024 | @ 254 Days (36 Weeks)
'A' class signal detected in the S&P 500 (via SPY). Running at an average wavelength of 254 days (36 Weeks) over 14 iterations since December 2014. Currently peaking
ΣL Cycle Summary
This excellent longer term wave, familiar to regular readers and subscribers, is notionally the Hurst 40 week nominal wave. Whilst the approach we now take is one of objective evidence for periodicity in markets, via a time frequency analysis, one of the original pioneers of numerical/spectral analysis was JM Hurst. The fact this component is so very apparent long after he established his nominal model in the 1960’s and 1970’s is a wonderful tribute. We recently published a report for this wave in our US Stock Market composite but I thought it was worth also sharing this specific analysis for SPY as it is particularly clear.
Superbly stationary in the period 2016-2020, this wave has lost some power and price influence since then but is still front and center at a bandwidth below 400 days, in most stock markets. The S&P 500 (via SPY here) is a good example of this component, being very well spectrally separated. Indeed in the area below this wave (300-500 days) there is almost a complete vacuum of power, a telling sign of consistency over time for the prominent wavelength.
Subscribers should also be aware of the possibility that this incoming peak is also the peak of the much longer cycle around 3.5 years, published on Sigma-L back in September this year.