Oil: Hurst Cycles - 26th August 2022

Price moves into a nest of lows of at least 20 week magnitude and a bounce has breached the 80 day downward VTL. We look at the outlook for price in the next month or two.

Tools required: Nominal Model | FLD | FLD Trading Strategy | FLD Trading Strategy (Advanced) | Principle of Nominality | Underlying Trend

Analysis Summary

Oil made a choppy but tradeable descent to the 20 week nest of lows through August, ostensibly confirming the low recently with a move through the downward 80 day VTL. We expect price to make a retest of the 20 and 40 week FLD resistance (medium and short term charts, below) before the move into an 18 month nominal low late 2022/early 2023. The 20 week wave is visually dominant and providing a good signal from our time frequency analysis, shown below, and running at around 115 days average wavelength over the sample period.