After making the 80 day nominal low around the 9th of December, WTI Crude is approaching the 40 day nominal peak. This is a potential short for the 18 month component low, phased to come mid February
You mentioned above that "We would expect to see some phase clusters forming around the 18 month component low and we don’t see that as yet".
Does phase clustering only occur once the cycles begin to turn from their peaks/troughs or does the app show phase clustering based on the alignment of future peaks/troughs.
From the comment above I assume the former but wanted to confirm. Thanks
Phase is calculated at each timepoint and across the bandwidth specified. If the magnitude of the averaged phase angles reaches above the threshold it will trigger a circle on the chart showing the magnitude. Different frequencies align at different times, they are not synced as discussed but will cluster. It gives warning of a larger trough forming if several components are lining up, I don't see it yet but is likely close looking at the phase angles.
I will build in some extrapolation of phase angles too (in my to do list!) but this is not trivial at all.
Numpy is a fantastic library for python. The vector based matrix operations it allows means we can do this. It would be next to impossible using loop based techniques!
No matter how hard I try to adjust my phasing, my cycle counts and bandpass filtering shows the 18M trough forming at the following 20W trough (14th July 23) not the next 20W trough as you've shown above. I'm assuming you've based this decision on your TFA, and see that it's showing a clear 18M trough forming around the 22nd Feb. Is the later alignment a possibility you've considered David?
Great write up, new member here and learning Hurst. This lined up perfectly with my traditional technical analysis. Got fills yesterday and playing out beautifully so far. Will there be an update on any of the indexes soon? Thanks
You mentioned above that "We would expect to see some phase clusters forming around the 18 month component low and we don’t see that as yet".
Does phase clustering only occur once the cycles begin to turn from their peaks/troughs or does the app show phase clustering based on the alignment of future peaks/troughs.
From the comment above I assume the former but wanted to confirm. Thanks
Phase is calculated at each timepoint and across the bandwidth specified. If the magnitude of the averaged phase angles reaches above the threshold it will trigger a circle on the chart showing the magnitude. Different frequencies align at different times, they are not synced as discussed but will cluster. It gives warning of a larger trough forming if several components are lining up, I don't see it yet but is likely close looking at the phase angles.
I will build in some extrapolation of phase angles too (in my to do list!) but this is not trivial at all.
The ability to drill down to this level of analysis is outstanding.
Numpy is a fantastic library for python. The vector based matrix operations it allows means we can do this. It would be next to impossible using loop based techniques!
No matter how hard I try to adjust my phasing, my cycle counts and bandpass filtering shows the 18M trough forming at the following 20W trough (14th July 23) not the next 20W trough as you've shown above. I'm assuming you've based this decision on your TFA, and see that it's showing a clear 18M trough forming around the 22nd Feb. Is the later alignment a possibility you've considered David?
Send me a chart on the discord Terry and I will have a look
Great write up, new member here and learning Hurst. This lined up perfectly with my traditional technical analysis. Got fills yesterday and playing out beautifully so far. Will there be an update on any of the indexes soon? Thanks
Hey Josh, nice to have you here and thank you. Yes, I will likely be updating the FTSE today or tomorrow and the S&P 500 next week.